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        派思股份[603318]股吧-怎么样-万融股票配资网

        浙商期货:玉米:现价略有回调 偏弱震荡为主|浙商期货

        摘要:   报告导读  玉米市场在经过长期的偏弱运行后,跌势逐步放缓,7月末价格反弹。不过当前价格水平仍不容乐观。玉米当前供应压力仍大,高温高湿的环境加剧了玉米储存霉变的风险, ...

          报告导读

          玉米市场在经过长期的偏弱运行后,跌势逐步放缓,7月末价格反弹。不过当前价格水平仍不容乐观。玉米当前供应压力仍大,高温高湿的环境加剧了玉米储存霉变的风险,贸易商出粮走货较多,被迫亏本抛售。而深加工企业自身库存也较高,继续压价收粮为主。不过,由于近期暴雨、洪涝灾害较为严重,情绪上也确实有一定的利多,短期难有继续走弱的机会。不过时间拉长至整个下半年来看,扩大进口、增产、谷物替代等利空将持续发酵,预计玉米仍将偏弱震荡为主。

          投资要点

          台风带来了降水,也带来了玉米倒伏的可能性。

          一、基本面略转弱,消息面利空影响加重

          7月,玉米基本面较6月继续转弱。天气影响造成的短期集中出量压制现价,深加工企业较多的库存储备压制收购价。同时,下半年消息面的利空加重,压制玉米价格。

          2021年7月初玉米、大豆、小麦与其他谷物震荡为主,其中,由于外盘波动较大,粕类振幅相对较宽。此外,油脂类等农产品也有较大波动。国内饲料板块受到影响较小,整体因自身基本面走弱而震荡偏弱运行为主。

          图1:玉米/大豆

          资料来源:天下粮仓、浙商期货研究中心

          图2:玉米/小麦

          资料来源:天下粮仓、浙商期货研究中心

          二、7月玉米现货价格略走弱

          1.玉米基本面继续转弱

          玉米市场在经过长期的偏弱运行后,跌势逐步放缓,7月末价格开始反弹,不过价格水平仍不容乐观。7月,玉米供应压力仍大,高温高湿的环境加剧了玉米储存霉变的风险,贸易商出粮走货较多,被迫亏本抛售。而深加工企业自身库存也较高,继续压价收粮为主。不过,下旬暴雨、洪涝灾害较为严重,情绪上也确实有一定的利多,短期难有继续走弱的机会。不过时间拉长至整个下半年来看,扩大进口、增产、谷物替代等利空将持续发酵,预计玉米仍将偏弱震荡为主。

          2.玉米港口和库存情况

          截至7月19日,玉米港口总库存283万吨,其中北方库存283万吨;南方库存34.2万吨。库存量较6月略有减少。

          需要注意的是,由于我国已经大量采购玉米,且仍有很大的潜在进口额,我国玉米价格与外盘已有一定程度的联动。此外,与其他农产品如豆粕、大豆的外盘走势也存在一定的关联性。外盘玉米涨价、国内玉米降价后,我国玉米进口利润下行速度较快,目前仍然维持深度倒挂。截至7月28日,南方港口玉米进口利润(含税)-564.21元/吨,北方港口玉米进口利润(含税)-644.21元/吨。

          图3:玉米南北库存

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          图4:玉米9月基差-蛇口港

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          图5:南方港口玉米进口利润

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          图6:北方港口玉米进口利润

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          3.玉米仓单量

          截至7月28日,玉米的注册仓单量为37306张,玉米淀粉注册仓单量为224张。

          图7:玉米仓单量

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          图8:玉米淀粉仓单量

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          三、外盘玉米先落后涨,玉米仍存大量进口

          7月外盘玉米走势同样先涨后落,中国继续大量进口玉米。本年度的预期玉米进口量有所上调,且未来仍有千万吨玉米未到港口,是下半年的一大潜在利空。

          最新的7月USDA报告中调整了2021/2022年度的数据。2021/2022全球玉米总供应为16.6亿吨,较2020/2021年度的16.08亿吨增5405万吨。2021/2022全球玉米总消费为11.83亿吨,较2020/2021年度的11.46亿吨增3722万吨。2021/2022全球玉米期末库存为2.91亿吨,较2020/2021年度的2.84亿吨增1132万吨。2021/2022全球玉米库销比为24.6%,较2020/2021年度的24.41%吨增0.19%。整体上看,2021/2022年的玉米供需再度上调,也就是2021年下半年后玉米供需均强。

          7月美国2021/2022年度的数据在供应上有一定上调。2021/2022年美玉米种植面积9270万英亩,较去年增190万英亩。收获面积预估值8450万英亩,较去年增200万英亩。美玉米单产预估值179.5蒲式耳/英亩,大幅上调,2020/2021年度这个值是172蒲式耳/英亩。2021/2022年美玉米预期总产量增加9.83亿蒲式耳至151.7亿蒲式耳,较此前预估明显上调。饲用消费略增为57.25亿蒲式耳;出口量略减至25亿蒲式耳。预期期末库存增加3.5亿蒲式耳至14.32亿蒲式耳。2021/2022年度美玉米库销比为11.6%,去年这个值则是8.87%。

          整体上看,2021/2022年度的数据均有所上调,未来玉米供应偏强。当前国际环境粮价处于相对高位,对我国玉米有较强的托底作用。

          图9:全球玉米总供应

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          图10:全球玉米总消费

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          图11:美国玉米单产

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          图12:美国玉米产量

          资料来源:wind、浙商期货研究中心

          四、后市展望

          玉米市场在经过长期的偏弱运行后,跌势逐步放缓,7月末价格反弹。不过当前价格水平仍不容乐观。玉米当前供应压力仍大,高温高湿的环境加剧了玉米储存霉变的风险,贸易商出粮走货较多,被迫亏本抛售。而深加工企业自身库存也较高,继续压价收粮为主。不过,由于近期暴雨、洪涝灾害较为严重,情绪上也确实有一定的利多,短期难有继续走弱的机会。不过时间拉长至整个下半年来看,扩大进口、增产、谷物替代等利空将持续发酵,预计玉米仍将偏弱震荡为主。

          浙商期货 徐心澄

        英文阅读:

        Report introduction

          CornThe market slants for a long time to move infirmly in the course hind, drop situation is progressively put delay, end price rebounded in July. Level of current nevertheless price still nots allow hopeful. Corn supplies pressure currently still big, high temperature is high wet environmental aggravate corn stores the risk that mildew changes, trafficker gives grain to take money more, be forced undersell of lose money in business. And stock of oneself of deep treatment company is more expensive also, continue the demand a low price receives grain to give priority to. Nevertheless, kill as a result of near future rainstorm, big damage caused by waterlogging relatively serious, the benefit with also have certain really on the mood is much, short-term have the opportunity that continues to lose hard. Nevertheless time spins will look to whole second half of the year, enlarge entrance, increase production, cereal to replace sky waiting for benefit to will ferment continuously, predicting corn will still slant weak concussion is given priority to.

        Invest a point

        The typhoon brought precipitation, also brought the possibility of corn lodging.

        One, main area turns slightly weak, sky of message side benefit affects accentuation

        In July, corn is basic face relatively continued to turn in June weak. Weather affects the short-term concentration that cause to give quantity suppress present price, the stock with deep treatment more company lays in suppress to buy price. In the meantime, the benefit sky of face of message of second half of the year is aggravating, suppress corn price.

        The corn at the beginning of July 2021, Soja, wheat and other cereal concussion are given priority to, among them, as a result of outside Pan Bo is moved bigger, dregs of rice kind of amplitude is opposite wider. In addition, grease kind wait for produce to also have bigger wave motion. Domestic feed board piece be affected lesser, whole because of oneself main area goes weak and concussion slants to move infirmly give priority to.

        Graph 1: Corn / soja

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of the world barn, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 2: Corn / wheaten

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of the world barn, short for Zhejiang Province

        2, corn spot price went weak slightly in July

        1. Corn is basic the face continues to turn weak

        Corn market slants for a long time to move infirmly in the course hind, drop situation is progressively put delay, end price began to rebound in July, nevertheless price level still nots allow hopeful. In July, corn supplies pressure still big, high temperature is high wet environmental aggravate corn stores the risk that mildew changes, trafficker gives grain to take money more, be forced undersell of lose money in business. And stock of oneself of deep treatment company is more expensive also, continue the demand a low price receives grain to give priority to. Nevertheless, rainstorm of the last ten-day of a month, big damage caused by waterlogging is killed relatively serious, the benefit with also have certain really on the mood is much, short-term have the opportunity that continues to lose hard. Nevertheless time spins will look to whole second half of the year, enlarge entrance, increase production, cereal to replace sky waiting for benefit to will ferment continuously, predicting corn will still slant weak concussion is given priority to.

        2. Corn haven and inventory circumstance

        Up to on July 19, corn haven total reserve 2.83 million tons, among them northward inventory 2.83 million tons; Southern stock 342 thousand tons. Stocks relatively decreased somewhat in June.

        Those who need an attention is, because our country has purchased corn in great quantities, and still have very large potential entrance specified number, price of our country corn and outside dish the linkage that already had fixed rate. In addition, be like with other agriculture productsThe beans dregses of rice, of soja outside dish go situation the associated sex with also exist certain. Outside dish corn rises in price, after domestic corn depreciates, rate of be issued to lower levels of profit of entrance of our country corn is rapidder, still maintain deepness to be hanged at present. Up to on July 28, southern haven corn imports profit (contain tax) - 564.21 yuan / ton, northward haven corn imports profit (contain tax) - 644.21 yuan / ton.

        Graph 3: Inventory of corn north and south

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 4: Corn in September base poor - Shekou harbor

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 5: Southern haven corn imports profit

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 6: Northward haven corn imports profit

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        3. Corn storehouse sheet is measured

        Up to on July 28, the enrollment of corn storehouse thin volume is 37306 pieces, cornAmylaceousRegister storehouse thin volume to be 224 pieces.

        Graph 7: Corn storehouse sheet is measured

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 8: Sheet of corn starch storehouse is measured

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        3, outside dish corn lags behind first go up, corn still keeps a large number of imports

        Outside July dish corn goes situation is similar after going up first, fall, china continues to import corn in great quantities. The anticipation of this year corn imports a quantity to go up somewhat tone, and future still has ten million ton corn did not arrive haven, the one big potential profit that is second half of the year is empty.

        The data of 2021/2022 year was adjusted newly in USDA report in July. Corn of 2021/2022 whole world always is supplied it is 1.66 billion tons, relatively 1.608 billion tons of 2020/2021 year add 54.05 million tons. Total spending of corn of 2021/2022 whole world is 1.183 billion tons, relatively 1.146 billion tons of 2020/2021 year add 37.22 million tons. Period end inventory is corn of 2021/2022 whole world 291 million tons, relatively 284 million tons of 2020/2021 year add 11.32 million tons. Library of corn of 2021/2022 whole world is sold than for 24.6% , relatively 24.41% tons of 2020/2021 year are added 0.19% . Look on whole, 2021/2022 year corn supply and demand go up once more tone, namely 2021 supply and demand of the corn after second half of the year all strong.

        The data of American 2021/2022 year was being supplied in July on have go up certainly tone. 2021/2022 Nian Meiyu rice grows an area 92.7 million acre, relatively added 1.9 million acre last year. Results area beforehand appraise is worth 84.5 million acre, relatively added 2 million acre last year. Beautiful corn per unit area yield beforehand appraise is worth 179.5 bushel / acre, go up considerably tone, 2020/2021 year is worth this is 172 bushel / acre. 2021/2022 Nian Meiyu rice anticipates total output increases 983 million bushel to 15.17 billion bushel, relatively before this beforehand appraise is apparent go up tone. Raise is added slightly with consumption for 5.725 billion bushel; Export volume is decreased slightly to 2.5 billion bushel. Anticipate period end inventory increases 350 million bushel to 1.432 billion bushel. Library of 2021/2022 year beautiful corn is sold than for 11.6% , this is worth last year is 8.87% .

        Look on whole, the data of 2021/2022 year all go up somewhat tone, prospective corn is supplied slant strong. Price of grain of current international environment is in opposite perch, have the more powerful effect that hold a bottom in the palm to our country corn.

        Graph 9: Global corn always is supplied

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 10: Global corn always is consumed

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 11: American corn per unit area yield

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        Graph 12: American corn crop

        Data sources: Research center of futures of business of Wind, short for Zhejiang Province

        4, hind city is looked into

        Corn market slants for a long time to move infirmly in the course hind, drop situation is progressively put delay, end price rebounded in July. Level of current nevertheless price still nots allow hopeful. Corn supplies pressure currently still big, high temperature is high wet environmental aggravate corn stores the risk that mildew changes, trafficker gives grain to take money more, be forced undersell of lose money in business. And stock of oneself of deep treatment company is more expensive also, continue the demand a low price receives grain to give priority to. Nevertheless, kill as a result of near future rainstorm, big damage caused by waterlogging relatively serious, the benefit with also have certain really on the mood is much, short-term have the opportunity that continues to lose hard. Nevertheless time spins will look to whole second half of the year, enlarge entrance, increase production, cereal to replace sky waiting for benefit to will ferment continuously, predicting corn will still slant weak concussion is given priority to.

        Heart of Xu of futures of business of short for Zhejiang Province is settleclear

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