Author: Chang'an futures Qu Yajuan
The situation that cupreous price continuance goes up recently, human relations copper breaks through 6000 integral col up, Shanghai copperThe index is broken through 49000, reach the level year ago (the level before also sufferring epidemic situation to pound namely) , besides main area outside driving, comfortable macroscopical environment also was offerred stronger prop up. City looks after, south-American epidemic situation is more serious, mine carries existence to supply slant close anticipate; Copper of essence of life yields add fast makings to will put delay, domestic stock is in low. Demand is changed infirmly somewhat, useless copper is replaced increase. Macroscopical environment slants slightly neuter, whole is in economy to anabiosis in the contradiction that erupts 2 times with epidemic situation. Below empty without clear advantage setting, cupreous price or still have go up space.
Pay close attention to influence of South-American epidemic situation
China copper mine is arenaceous in May reach concentrate to import a quantity to be 1.69 million tons, decrease compared to the same period 7.97% , annulus comparing decreases 16.21% . Came in June, TC of cost of smeltery thick refine lasts low; Suffer effect of early days shipment, concentrate of 6-7 month copper supplies makings general to maintain slant tight situation. Produce cupreous big country Chile, daily add new coronal newly pneumonic case of illness still is in 4000 the left and right sides, peruvian add case of illness newly to also be in 3000 the left and right sides. The whole world is the greatest copper mine business, company of estate of Chile country copper (Codelco) express, will suspend refinery of its Chuquicamata branch and the operation that cast a factory, spread in order to prevent new coronal virus further. Minister of Chile mining industry says, beforehand appraise Chile copper output glided 2020 200 thousand tons, occupy Chile of total 2019 output 3.5% the left and right sides. Afterwards Chile after the state critical condition extends 90 days, peruvian will former on this month critical condition extends 30 days of due states to on July 31. The market worries about Chile and foreground of production of Peruvian copper mine, the benefit that supplies end is driven more relatively apparent.
Copper of essence of life yields add fast makings to put delay
In May output of domestic fine copper 853 thousand tons, grow 13.3% compared to the same period; Crop of accumulative total of before 5 months 3.967 million tons, accumulative total is added compared to the same period fast for 2.7% . Suffer effect of early days shipment, concentrate of 6-7 month copper is supplied slant in short supply, refine factory overhauls grow in quantity, SMM predicts cathode copper crop was seven hundred and thirty-four thousand two hundred tons in June, annulus comparing decreases 4.66% , increase compared to the same period 0.81% . Volume of fine copper import was China in May three hundred and five thousand seven hundred tons, increase compared to the same period 22.73% ; Among them, chile still is Chinese fine copper is the biggest supply a country, imported fine copper from Chile in May eighty-one thousand seven hundred tons, increase compared to the same period 21.59% .
In light of reserve data, total reserve of period place copper goes up to glide continuously since April, end to fell on June 24 100 thousand tons the following, be in last few years of level of the corresponding period low. Stock of futures of period place copper is small on June carry the situation that be issued to lower levels continued after rising, end to fell to be controlled to thirty-six thousand four hundred tons on June 29. Domestic stock is in level of on the low side, also have to period price stronger prop up. Stock of copper of LME of the middle ten days of a month is small in June increase, subsequently fall after a rise, end 29 days to achieve two hundred and nineteen thousand six hundred tons, be in moderate level to go up. By June, agio of LME0-3 merchandise on hand closes quickly narrow, merchandise on hand supplies full power to change direction somewhat.
Demand tends smooth
Work centrally at early days relatively, cable industry is new in June order somewhat abate, compare with photograph of level of the corresponding period of in former years nevertheless, makings general did not glide apparently. In May air conditioning crop nineteen million four hundred and twenty-eight thousand, drop compared to the same period 14.7% , crop not as good as level of before two years of the corresponding period; Export volume was 5.62 million in May, annulus is closer than decreasing 20% . Air conditioning production turned in July off-season, drive to the consumption of cupreous material finite. Since May, car market get warm again after a cold spell is apparent, the consumption that it is copper offers partial increment. Southern in June cruel wet enrages grow in quantity, go into operation of estate and each engineering is affected, to cupreous material consumption also has certain be a burden on. Supply of goods of near future useless copper is relatively enough, essence of life abandons price difference to expand, 1# is shining last week copper all valence is in 43450 yuan / ton, useless price of average essence of life differs 1745 yuan / ton. Useless copper is replaced apparent, go against consumption of copper of essence of life.
Macroscopical atmosphere slants neuter
Cupreous price from March since the bottom go up situation drive besides what have basic side outside, loose policy stimulation, economy lasts on macroscopical level repair also is producing main effect. The United States PMI of Markit manufacturing industry picked up in June to 49.6, euro area manufacturing industry PMI picked up in June to 46.9; In addition, the get warm again after a cold spell of different also level such as obtain employment market, estate market. Manufacturing industry PMI was China in June 50.9, annulus comparing rises 0.3 percent, manufacturing index, new order index and index of raw material stock all have the rise of certain level, manufacturing activity continues to restore. At present the market basically is anxious to come from erupt 2 times at epidemic situation and the limit tendency of governmental policy. Epidemic situation of American much city appears rebound, the city pauses or at least 12 deferred economy to restart plan, accumulative total of pneumonic diagnose case of illness exceeds global new coronal 10 million. Beautiful couplet store Weir reiterates chairman Bao, won't recall prematurely the stimulative step of any forms. According to IMF newest monthly magazine, beforehand global economy increase rate was appraise 2020 - 4.9% , than April forecast low 1.9 percent; Predict American economy was added 2020 fast for - 8% , china is 1% .
End when week COMEX1 date copper was not commercial bull to hold a storehouse to soar on June 23 6603 pieces, and nominal holds a storehouse to reduce 493 pieces, only much money market expands further, bullish sentiment accumulates fund, to hind city copper price is relatively hopeful. Domestic main strength of an army maintains a warehouse still is headroom cash, nevertheless headroom quantity is in cut.
Will look at present, cupreous price is maintained in perch, basically be Chile, Peruvian wait for country of main mineral products to be below epidemic situation be a burden on, mine end supplies those who have shortage to anticipate, and the inflation that Central Bank of early days each country releases huge amount liquidity to fall anticipates; Minerals business yields whether occurrence materiality reduction of output still needs test and verify, on policy more apt preserves existing scope, unless appear systematization risk. Stock is small it is certain to still can be offerred prop up, after demand is released quickly, will tend smooth. Reach the level year ago as cupreous price, continue to rise the interest with stronger need is driven more. Do not have obvious interest empty factor at present, cupreous price or slant strong move, even if has adjust, extent makings will be finite.