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      1. 派思股份[603318]股吧-怎么样-万融股票配资网

        国君策略:处在震荡区间下沿 布局消费、医药、科技

        摘要:   【今日直播】  太平洋证券2020中期策略会| 新结构,新牛市  来源:谈股问君  原标题:【国君策略】处在震荡区间下沿,布局消费、医药、科技  中美发酵的路径难以准确预 ...

          【今日直播】

          太平洋证券2020中期策略会| 新结构,新牛市

          来源:谈股问君

          原标题:【国君策略】处在震荡区间下沿,布局消费、医药、科技

          中美发酵的路径难以准确预判,但“以国内大循环为主体”的思维将逐步占主导位置。当前处于震荡下沿,积极亮剑。基本面与资金格局支持消费/医药/科技的结构性行情。

          放下突破的执著,当前市场整体格局为震荡。考虑到中美关系不确定因素、宏观流动性斜率放缓、监管态度不确定性等问题,目前上行遇到阻力,突破3500还需要时间,震荡格局有望延续。

          外部因素扰动下市场大跌,但目前已处于震荡区间下沿,积极亮剑。7月以来,无风险利率下行是市场核心驱动,增量资金入市为市场提供了扎实的上涨基础。就扰动因素而言,中美发酵的路径难以准确预判,但“以国内大循环为主体”的思维将逐步占主导位置,中美背后的风险评价指标正在经历下行的过程。当前已处区间下沿,积极亮剑。

          风格回归,积极亮剑——消费、医药和科技。宏观增长方式从投资向消费过渡、产业链从长到短变迁、增长模式从增长红利到存量竞争,这些因素是导致风格差异的本质原因,也是我们看好科技和消费的基础。当前市场对于科技和消费有不同的担忧。第一,对消费的担忧:估值已高,盈利能否超预期成为关键。近年不断攀升的估值水平是与龙头企业竞争优势提升带动市占率提升匹配的。从当前的中报业绩表现来看,该逻辑尚未证伪。第二,对科技的担忧:短期压力来自解禁;中期来自中美问题。历史上解禁规模与市场表现无负相关性。同时,科技的逻辑关键不在中美,而在“内循环”。与2013-2015年相比,科技行情持续性将更好:1)经济转型的必要性、外围风险,政策向科技倾斜;2)当前的科技行情有盈利支撑,尤其是龙头公司,行业和政策的红利带动的高增长阶段可能才刚开始;3)5G时代速度更快、数据更多、硬件的要求更高,产业链覆盖面、盈利扩展纵深远超4G。

          资金格局转为存量博弈,市场将回归结构性行情。从高频股东人数看,本轮市场上涨中股东人数未显著增加,体现存量博弈特征,全面牛市概率较低。从信用交易情况看,融资净买入回归正常水平,增量资金流入放缓。从外资动向看,北上资金连续2周净流出,市场向上动能减缓。从公募基金仓位看,Q2基金仓位提升,历史规律显示市场中期有望向好。从配置方向看,医药、消费、科技为本周融资净买入主要方向,也是本周北上净卖出主要方向,及公募Q2增配主要方向,显示资金分歧较大。结合历史上各类资金行为与未来表现的关系,以及今年市场增量资金格局,资金面支持消费、医药、科技结构性行情。

          仍是震荡格局,重视结构。1)大势研判:3200-3400震荡格局不变,后续需要重点关注监管、中美、盈利等因素。2)风格研判:从金融周期向消费科技过渡。3)行业比较:食品饮料/家电/汽车/医药/电子/新能源/计算机。

          风险提示:全球疫情防控与经济复苏低于预期,中美风险事件超预期。

          1. 大势:行至震荡区间下沿,积极布局

          2. 风格:把握消费、医药、科技的结构性机会

          3. 资金:存量博弈下的结构性行情

          4. 回归震荡,重视结构

          5. 五维数据全景图

          1. 大势:行至震荡区间下沿,积极布局

          单边行情条件不足,当前市场整体格局为震荡。我们在7月19日报告《放下突破的执著,重回震荡》中强调,受短期监管、宏观流动性、中美等因素影响,市场上行遇阻,未来一段时间大势以震荡为主,区间将在3200-3400。

          从下行风险看,导致市场下行的因素未来继续拖累市场的风险较小。

          (1) 监管政策方面,近期监管层出台措施打击非法配资等,有助于遏制市场盲目上涨,不破坏市场长期向好格局。

          (2) 宏观政策方面,继续低于预期风险较小。近期股债市场表现显示市场对货币政策不进一步宽松已有预期,7月政治局会议的货币与财政政策低于预期的风险有限,且货币环境从宽货币向宽信用传导,对A股稳步上涨有利。

          (3) 海外风险方面,市场对于中美问题的风险评价也在逐步下行。2018年以来,中美问题对于金融市场预期的影响,经历了从无到有,从有到极度重视的过程。中美问题对经济增长、金融等层次的影响市场都有了充分的预期。我们认为,中美发酵的路径难以准确预判,但是“以国内大循环为主体”的思维将逐步占主导位置,中美背后的风险评价指标正在经历下行的过程。原先经营海外业务为主的新宝股份随着国内业务快速增长,股价近两年上涨6倍,也反映市场的关注点转向从国内市场挖掘机会。

          从向上支撑看,多因素支撑市场企稳,目前已处于震荡区间下沿,应积极亮剑。

          (1) 无风险利率下行驱动资金入市的逻辑未变。7月以来,无风险利率下行是市场核心驱动,增量资金入市为市场提供了扎实的上涨基础。当前银行理财预期收益率仍处于下行趋势中,2020年上半年居民存款累计增加8.3万亿元,同比多增1.5万亿元,居民可投资资金充裕。我们强调无风险利率的关键在“人心”,即使国债收益率短期出现波动,长期利率回落、人口老龄化在全球范围内是长期趋势,无风险利率下行的预期难以证伪。

          (2) 金融市场改革红利支撑市场长期向好。2019年9月证监会提出“资本市场全面深改12条”,金融服务实体背景下,资本市场的战略定位被提到历史新高度。2020年新三板精选层改革、创业板注册制改革快速推进,政策支持有利于提高市场的风险偏好,对市场形成支撑作用。

          (3) 未来盈利将逐季上行。2020年5月工业企业利润总额同比增长6.0%,增速环比提升10个百分点。跟据国君策略组预测,2020年全A非金融石油石化盈利将下降19%,增速从Q2起逐季上行。

          (4) 宽松的流动性环境有望比预期更持久。近期市场的下跌已经反映市场对流动性收紧的悲观预期。2020年3月以来美联储扩表约3万亿美元,在美国疫情仍严峻的情况下,全球宽松的货币环境持续性有望超预期。且美元面临贬值压力下,流动性环境有利于新兴市场股市。

          从近期市场走势看,快速的行业轮动带来的是自下而上助力突破缺乏基础,市场赚钱效应弱化、反身性使得增量资金放缓,突破上沿需要等待。风格轮动方面,6月以来风格轮动明显加速,成长、金融、周期风格依次领涨。行业表现方面,除军工外,本周其他行业涨幅均未超过4%,传媒、电子、通信等高风险偏好属性的行业领跌,市场赚钱效应弱化。资金格局方面,本周北上资金净流出248亿元,流出规模较上周扩大,日融资净买入额均未超过100亿元,已回落至5-6月水平,市场反身性导致增量资金放缓。因此,交易层面看市场突破震荡区间上沿仍需等待。

          因此,从监管政策、宏观环境、海外风险、交易层面看,我们认为未来一段时间大势以震荡为主,区间将在3200-3400。

          2. 风格:把握消费、医药、科技的结构性机会

          从DDM模型看,市场驱动力从无风险利率下行转至基本面,风格将回归消费、医药、科技。前期无风险利率下行驱动的快速上升行情告一段落,对应的风格特征金融与周期占优的格局有望改变。进入半年报披露高峰(金麒麟分析师)期,市场关注度重归基本面。3大基本面趋势对风格配置的影响值得重视:

          (1) “以国内大循环为主体”加速宏观增长方式从投资向消费过渡。消费对GDP增长的贡献率从2006年的43%升至2019年的58%,同期资本形成的贡献率从43%降至31%。展望未来,“以国内大循环为主体”要求充分发挥超大规模市场和内需潜力,消费对经济的贡献提升有望加快。

          (2) 产业链从长到短变迁,消费升级和产业转型加速。根据世界银行数据,2017年我国人均总收入为8700美元,较菲律宾、印尼、越南等国高一倍以上。同时我国人口老龄化日益严峻,以建筑行业为例,工人平均年龄从2008年的34岁上升到2018年的40岁。因此,人力资源禀赋使我国部分低端制造业将加速向海外转移,我国产业链从长到短变迁,结构上向高端升级。国内经济将更依赖消费升级驱动的消费行业和工程师红利驱动的科技行业。

          (3) 增长模式从增长红利到存量竞争,龙头市场份额扩大。随着我国GDP增长中枢下行,各行业从获取增量市场红利转为存量竞争,龙头市占率加速提升。行业的马太效应在消费与科技行业更为明显,以白酒行业为例,2017年以来白酒上市公司营收增速领先白酒行业产量增速的优势明显扩大。

          以上因素将导致消费、医药与科技结构性行情回归。

          市场对消费、医药的担忧:估值已高,盈利能否超预期成为关键。

          首先,当前估值包含的盈利预期并未过分地高。消费与医药行业中,食品饮料、家电、医药的PB与PE分位数(近10年)均超过90%,然而实际估值并未如分位数体现的这么高。若3个行业PE或PB回落至近10年中值,下跌空间分别仅为35.6%、18.7%和27.9%。从PB角度看,3大行业结构优化,ROE中枢已然提高。从PE角度看,食品、家电行业Q1业绩受到疫情影响,医药行业Q2以来疫情正面影响尚未体现(部分公司Q1也有负面影响),PEttm存在高估。经过下半年估值向2021年切换后,估值将接近历史中枢。因此,当前估值包含的盈利预期并未过分地高。

          其次,消费板块近年不断攀升的估值水平有基本面基础:龙头企业竞争优势提升,盈利能力提升。从当前的中报业绩表现来看,医药、消费表现在全市场处于领先位置。医药行业半年报预增率57%,工业企业数据显示5月医药行业利润总额同比增长24.3%。食品饮料行业半年报预增率70%,5月食品行业利润总额同比增长11.6%。家电行业半年报预增率57%,创意小家电高增长,厨电、白电Q2快速恢复。

          当前市场对科技的担忧:短期压力来自解禁的流动性冲击;中期来自中美等问题对风险偏好的影响。

          首先,解禁的影响不宜高估。从历史数据看,2011年以来A股月度解禁市值占全A流通市值比例与当月Wind全A指数涨跌幅的相关系数为0.11,即解禁规模与当月涨幅没有显著的负相关性。当前科技板块的解禁与减持已有充足的预期。大基金已经多次公布减持计划,7月科创板解禁已经为市场广泛认知。从市场环境看,当前市场流动性环境宽松,交易量处于历史较高水平,可对解禁形成一定缓冲。

          其次,打造“内循环”使中美问题对科技板块的边际影响从负面转向正面。科技板块海外收入占比较高,2018年美国启动对华贸易战后科技板块显著下跌,海外风险在股价中得到愈发充分的体现。打造“内循环”要求我国在关键环节、关键领域、关键产品方面实现更多更大新突破,破除技术发展瓶颈。中美问题加剧使供应链安全的紧迫性提升,对科技板块形成利好因素。

          展望未来,下半年科技板块仍将有明显的超额收益。我们认为当前的科技行情将围绕龙头展开,行情的持续性和幅度都将较2013-2015年更高,原因如下:1)经济转型的必要性、外围风险,倒逼政策向科技倾斜,密集的政策将与当年不可一日而语;2)当前的科技行情是有盈利支撑的,尤其是龙头公司,行业和政策的红利带动的高增长阶段可能才刚刚开始。科技板块盈利与半导体周期相关性较强,本轮全球半导体周期向上叠加半导体国产化率提升将带来科技盈利周期向上。3)5G时代不同于4G时代,速度更快、数据更大、硬件的要求更高,这带来的产业链覆盖面、盈利扩展纵深是远超4G的。科技板块盈利与我国手机产量、无线通信牌照发放相关性较强,5G周期的换机潮及技术进步将使本轮科技盈利周期强度更高。

          3. 资金:存量博弈下的结构性行情

          本轮市场上涨中股东人数未显著增加,体现存量博弈特征。我们统计了上市公司半月频的股东人数变化。从择时角度看,历史上全面牛市需要股东人数显著增加,表明个人投资者大规模入场。7月以来股东人数的增加仍相对平缓,表明投资者未大规模入场,未来仍有望呈存量博弈格局,全面牛市概率较低。从配置风格角度看,股东人数也是机构行为的代理变量,历史上半月频的股东人数减少的公司,未来半个月表现较好,表明股东人数对走势具有前瞻性。7月上半月通信、交运、零售、钢铁、汽车行业股东人数减少比例居前,并未体现出显著的风格特征,机构缺乏一致的进攻方向是快速上涨行情终结的因素之一。

          融资净买入回归正常水平,增量资金入市显著放缓,验证资金的存量博弈格局。7月首周融资净买入额达1346亿元,打破2015年周净买入纪录。然而随着市场进入震荡期,日融资净买入额已经回落至5月-6月市场震荡上行期的水平。表明增量资金入市显著放缓,资金面进入存量博弈格局。结构上看,截至周四收盘,本周融资净买入额居前的行业为医药、电新、军工、食品饮料、计算机。可见消费、医药、科技成为存量博弈格局下杠杆资金优选的配置方向。从杠杆资金行为看,后续医药、消费、科技的结构性行情具有资金层面的基础。

          北上资金由较快净流入转为净流出,外资入市放缓,同样验证资金的存量博弈格局。从北上资金的流向看,本周北上资金净流出248亿元,连续2周净流出且净流出规模环比增加。从历史上看,根据北上资金净流入是否超过近1年均值的择时策略效果较好,表明北上资金具有前瞻性。因此北上资金流入节奏放缓也意味着A股进入震荡的概率提升。从北上资金的配置结构看,本周北上资金流出较多的行业为非银、食品饮料、医药、计算机、消费者服务。历史上月度北上资金增持比例较高的公司未来一个月表现较好,显示北上资金行为具有前瞻性。北上资金减配医药、消费、科技金额居前,这与其在这些板块配置绝对规模较大有关。近期北上资金流出与中美问题扰动有关,长期看北上资金流入趋势不变,从历史经验看一旦重新转为净流入,北上资金往往加回此前减仓的行业,因此对北上资金行为无需担忧。

          Q2公募基金仓位回升,从历史数据看,基金仓位提升预示中期大势向好。基金加仓医药、科技、消费,结构行情有望延续。基金仓位方面,Q2普通股票型、偏股混合型、灵活配置型公募基金仓位分别提升0.2、3.0和3.3个百分点。根据公募基金季度仓位变化的择时策略效果较好,表明基金仓位提升预示未来一个季度大势向好概率较大。基金配置结构方面,Q2基金增配医药、电新、食品、社服、电子行业的规模居前,医药、消费、科技为基金主要配置方向。投资者对公募基金配置拥挤存在担忧,但历史上公募基金规模扩张较快阶段,基金行业配置对未来走势具有正向的前瞻性。因此在当前公募基金作为市场主要增量资金的情况下,公募加仓更多体现动量效应而非反转效应。

          4. 回归震荡,重视结构

          大势研判:3200-3400震荡。我们认为,当前市场将从前期的趋势阶段转向震荡阶段。一方面是3500点阻力较大,且当前各个风格尚不存在自下而上助力突破的基础,另一方面是市场赚钱效应弱化,增量资金放缓,我们认为未来一段时间大势以震荡为主,区间将在3200-3400。后续需要重点关注监管、中美、盈利等因素。

          行业比较:未来快速上涨将转为结构性行情,综合考虑行业基本面与资金格局,行业风格有望从金融周期向消费科技过渡。

          食品饮料:半年报有望表现良好,龙头优势进一步体现。1)行业景气:白酒等受疫情冲击较大的行业Q2迅速恢复,大众食品等相对受益于疫情的行业Q2延续稳健增长趋势;2)行业格局:疫情冲击下,龙头盈利表现的优势更加明显,民族品牌复兴趋势加速;3)关注调味品:疫情之下家庭渠道消费增加对冲餐饮渠道下滑,中长期看价量齐升将带动行业持续扩容,以及乳制品:需求端复苏强劲,流通渠道大幅恢复,供给端补库存显著增加。

          家电:可选消费中值得期待的种子选手,目前涨幅相对较低。1)当前仍处于消费复苏的早期阶段,由必选消费支出逐步向可选消费支出切换;2)商品房销售逐渐回升,半年报业绩预告显示家电景气复苏明显,创意小家电快速成长,白电/厨电显著修复,未来一季度或有望持续改善;3)整体而言估值水平低,盈利能力强,外资偏好品种。

          汽车/新能源:新能源汽车销量进入景气周期,产业链繁荣可期。1)从当前的核心新能源厂商销售数据看,新能源汽车销量有望在疫情后走向反转;2)传统汽车销售数据也有望在疫情后走向修复;3)当前汽车板块预期较低,往下安全垫较高,市场仍将以核心龙头为主。

          医药:抗疫相关板块Q3景气仍有望提升,骨科、CRO/CDMO、创新药、医疗服务等赛道Q2景气显著复苏。1)抗疫板块:Q3全球疫情风险仍大,抗疫相关产品价量仍有望环比提升;2)长期高景气赛道:半年报业绩预告显示骨科、CRO/CDMO、创新药、医疗服务等长期优质赛道景气度明显恢复,且龙头公司表现更优,行业龙头的长期逻辑仍强。

          电子:疫情后景气周期将回归,国内产业链快速发展。1)全球周期:2019年全球半导体周期已触底,5G周期中需求终将回归;2)中国趋势:国内IC等电子产业链迅速发展,材料+设备+制造全面进步;3)关注半导体:内资晶圆产线快速扩产,产业链景气度有望维持数年,以及消费电子:无线耳机销量快速增长,平板电脑和笔电需求稳健增长,手机期待换机潮。

          计算机:自主可控核心期,且数据流量处理迎来高增长阶段。往后看,网络安全和医疗信息化行业政策不断落地,预期相对稳定,行情高增长阶段即将来临。

          5. 五维数据全景图

        英文阅读:

          [now direct seeding]

          2020 metaphase strategy meets Pacific Ocean negotiable securities | New structure, new cattle city

        Origin: Talk ask gentleman

        Original title: [monarch is politic] issue an edge at concussion interval, layout consumption, medicine, science and technology

        Sino-USBarmy method hard accurate sentence beforehand, but " give priority to body with domestic systemic circulation " thinking will take dominant place stage by stage. Be in the edge below concussion currently, shine actively sword. Main area and capital structure support are consumed / medicine / the structural sex prices of science and technology.

           Those who put down a breakthrough is clinging, pattern of current market whole is concussion. Considering Sino-US relation slope of not certain factor, macroscopical fluidity puts the delay, issue such as superintendency manner uncertainty, go up at present encounter resistance, breakthrough 3500 still need time, concussion pattern hopeful continues.

           Exterior element disturbs next markets fall greatly, but already was in the edge below concussion interval at present, shine actively sword. Since July, be issued to lower levels of calm danger interest rate is market core drive, increment capital was offerred for the market into city rise solidly foundation. Disturb the element, sino-US barmy method hard accurate sentence beforehand, but " give priority to body with domestic systemic circulation " thinking will take dominant place stage by stage, the risk of Sino-US backside evaluates index to experiencing the process of be issued to lower levels. Already was in interval to issue an edge currently, shine actively sword.

           Style regression, shine actively sword -- consumption, medicine and science and technology. Macroscopical growth pattern transfers to consumption from investment, industrial catenary from grow pattern of short changes, growth to arrive from growth bonus the competition that put an amount, these elements are the essential cause that causes style difference, also be the foundation that we value science and technology and consumption. Current market has to science and technology and consumption those who differ is anxious. The first, what offset expends is anxious: Appraise cost is high already, gain whether super- anticipate become a key. Climbing the estimate that raise to be worth a level ceaselessly in recent years move city to occupy rate promotion to match with elevator belt of advantage of bibcock industry competition. From current in in light of expression of newspaper outstanding achievement, this are logistic have not card bogus. The 2nd, to science and technology be anxious: Short-term pressure comes from lift a ban; Metaphase comes from Sino-US problem. Dimensions of the lift a ban on the history and market performance do not have negative dependency. In the meantime, the logistic key of science and technology is absent Sino-US, and be in " inside circularly " . With 2013-2015 year photograph comparing, prices of science and technology is durative will better: 1) risk of the necessity of economic transition, periphery, policy tilts to science and technology; 2) prices of current science and technology has gain to prop up, especially bibcock company, the fast growth phase that the bonus of industry and policy drives just just may begin; 3) 5G times rate the demand of more of faster, data, hardware is higher, industrial catenary covers face, profit 4G of patulous vertical deep Yuan Chao.

           Capital structure turns to measure rich play chess to put, the market will return to structural sex prices. Look from number of high frequency partner, epicycle market rises in partner number did not increase significantly, reflect feature of play chess of the rich that put an amount, probability of comprehensive ox city is inferior. Trade from credit the circumstance looks, it is normal that financing buys regression completely level, increment capital is flowed into put delay. Look from foreign capital tendercy, the capital on north is poured out of 2 weeks completely continuously, the market up kinetic energy slow down. From storehouse of fair collect fund look, q2 fund storehouse promotion, hopeful of metaphase of historical rule indication market to good. From configuration way looks, medicine, consumption, science and technology buys main way completely for this week financing, also be a main way sells completely on Zhou Bei originally, reach fair collect Q2 to add match main way, indication capital difference is bigger. Join behavior of of all kinds capital and the future behaves concern on the history, and this year structure of market increment capital, financing area supports prices of sex of structure of consumption, medicine, science and technology.

           Still be concussion pattern, take a structure seriously. 1) general trends grinds sentence: 3200-3400 concussion pattern is changeless, attention of follow-up need key is superintended, the element such as Sino-US, gain. 2) the style grinds sentence: To consumption from financial cycle science and technology transfers. 3) the industry compares: Food drink / home appliance / car / medicine / electron / new energy resources / the computer.

           Risk clew: Global epidemic situation is prevented accuse to anabiosis with economy under anticipate, sino-US risk incident exceeds anticipate.

           1.   General trends: Issue an edge to concussion interval all right, active position

        2. Style: Grasp the structural sex opportunity of consumption, medicine, science and technology

          3. Capital: The structural sex prices below play chess of the rich that put an amount

        4.  Recursive concussion, take a structure seriously

          5.  5 dimension occupy panoramic graph

          1.   General trends: Issue an edge to concussion interval all right, active position

          Unilateral prices condition is insufficient, pattern of current market whole is concussion. We reported on July 19 " those who put down a breakthrough is clinging, regain concussion " in emphasize, suffer short-term superintend, macroscopical fluidity, Sino-US wait for element influence, the market goes up receive block, future general trends of period of time is given priority to with concussion, interval will be in 3200-3400.

           Look from risk of be issued to lower levels, the element future that brings about market be issued to lower levels continues the risk of market of be a burden on is lesser.

           (1) superintendency policy respect, near future superintendency layer publishs measure blow to match illegally endowment etc, conduce to market of keep within limits rising blindly, do not destroy the market long-term to fine structure.

           (2) macroscopical policy respect, continue under anticipate the risk is lesser. The near future indication market of debt market performance is not farther to monetary policy comfortable already had anticipate, in July the money of conference of the Political Bureau and finance policy under expectant risk finite, and monetary environment is conducted to wide credence from wide currency, to A rise steadily advantageous.

           (3) abroad risk respect, the market also is in to the risk assessment of Sino-US problem progressively be issued to lower levels. Since 2018, sino-US problem is affected to what money market anticipates, experienced from do not have have, from have exceeding attention process. The influence market that waits for administrative levels to economic growth, finance had Sino-US problem sufficient anticipation. We think, sino-US barmy method hard accurate sentence beforehand, but " give priority to body with domestic systemic circulation " thinking will take dominant place stage by stage, the risk of Sino-US backside evaluates index to experiencing the process of be issued to lower levels. Manage overseas business formerly to give priority toNew treasure shareGrow quickly as domestic business, share price rises nearly two years 6 times, the attention drop that also reflects the market gets lost to dig an opportunity from home market.

           From prop up up look, look forward to of the much element market that prop up is firm, already was in the edge below concussion interval at present, should shine actively sword.

           (1) the logic that enters town without capital of drive of be issued to lower levels of venture interest rate did not change. Since July, be issued to lower levels of calm danger interest rate is market core drive, increment capital was offerred for the market into city rise solidly foundation. Current bank conduct financial transactions anticipates yield still is in trend of be issued to lower levels in, dweller deposit accumulative total increased 8.3 trillion yuan first half of the year 2020, add 1.5 trillion yuan more compared to the same period, the dweller can invest capital abundant. The key that we emphasize having venture interest rate is in " popular feeling " , although national debt yield is short-term occurrence wave motion, fall after a rise of long-term interest rate, population is aged long-term trend is inside global limits, of be issued to lower levels of calm danger interest rate anticipate hard card bogus.

           (2) the market of bonus of money market reform that prop up is long-term to good. Card inspect can put forward in September 2019 " capital market changes 12 greatly in the round " , finance serves hypostatic setting to fall, the strategic fixed position of capital market is mentioned historical new height. New 2020 3 board handpick layer reform, do poineering work board register make reform be advanced quickly, policy support is helpful for increasing the risk preference of the market, form the action that prop up to the market.

           (3) prospective gain will chase season to go up. Total of industrial company profit grew 6.0% compared to the same period in May 2020, add fast annulus to compare promotion 10 percent. Follow to be forecasted according to monarch strategy group, profit of petrifaction of oil of finance of blame of complete 2020 A will drop 19% , add fast chase season to go up since Q2.

           (4) comfortable fluidity environment hopeful is more abiding than anticipating. The drops to had mirrorred the market to be tightened up to fluidity pessimism of near future market anticipates. Since March 2020 beautiful couplet store enlarge watch restrains 3 trillion dollar, in American epidemic situation still below severe case, durative hopeful exceeds the monetary environment with comfortable whole world anticipate. And the dollar is faced with devalue below pressure, fluidity environment is helpful for rising market stock market.

           Go from near future market situation look, fast industry annulus move those who bring is from bottom to top the breakthrough that help strength lacks a base, market profitable effect is changed infirmly, the sex that turn over a body makes increment capital puts delay, the edge on the breakthrough needs to await. Style annulus uses a field, style annulus is moved since June quicken apparently, grow, finance, periodic style is ordinal get go up. The industry behaves a respect, outside dividing war industry, this week is other the industry rises all did not exceed 4% , the industry of the attribute of high risk preference such as medium, electron, communication is gotten drop, market profitable effect is changed infirmly. Capital structure respect, this capital on Zhou Bei pours out of 24.8 billion yuan completely, pour out of dimensions relatively expand last week, day financing buys the forehead to all did not exceed 10 billion yuan completely, already fall after a rise comes 5-6 month level, the market turns over body sex to bring about increment capital to put delay. Accordingly, trade the level sees the market break through the edge on concussion interval to still need to await.

           Accordingly, from superintendency policy, macroscopical environment, abroad risk, trade the level looks, we think to did not come for some time general trends is given priority to with concussion, interval will be in 3200-3400.

           2. Style: Grasp the structural sex opportunity of consumption, medicine, science and technology

          Look from DDM model, market driving force turns to main area from be issued to lower levels of calm danger interest rate, the style will return to consumption, medicine, science and technology. Early days does not have the fast ascendant prices of drive of be issued to lower levels of venture interest rate to come to an end, corresponding style feature finance and cycle take the pattern hopeful change of actor. Enter half annals to announce a summit(golden kylin analyst)Period, market attention is spent put in main area 's charge again. The influence that climates of 3 large main area configure to the style is worth to take seriously:

           (1) " give priority to body with domestic systemic circulation " quicken macroscopical growth pattern to transfer to consumption from investment. The contributive rate that spending increases to GDP comes from 43% litres of 2006 58% 2019, the contribution that capital of the corresponding period forms is led from 43% fall to 31% . Look into future, "Give priority to body with domestic systemic circulation " ask sufficient play exceeds wholesale market and inside need latent capacity, consumption promotes hopeful to accelerate to economic contribution.

           (2) industrial catenary from grow short changes, consumption upgrades and industrial transition is quickened. According to world bank data, gross income of our country average per capita was 8700 dollars 2017, the country such as more Philippine, Indonesian, Vietnam is one times higher above. Our country population is aged at the same time increasingly austere, it is in order to build an industry exemple, average age is 40 when rise to 2018 34 years old from 2008 the worker years old. Accordingly, manpower resource gift makes our country part small the move outside carrying manufacturing industry to will quicken Xiang Hai, catenary of our country industry from grow short changes, upgrade to high end on the structure. Domestic economy will more depend on consumption to upgrade the industry of science and technology of the consumptive industry of drive and engineer bonus drive.

           (3) growth pattern arrives from growth bonus the competition that put an amount, bibcock market share expands. Grow centre be issued to lower levels as our country GDP, each industry from get increment market extra dividend to turn to estimate competition to put, bibcock city is occupied rate quicken promotion. The Matthew effect of the industry is in consumption and industry of science and technology are more apparent, it is with liquor industry exemple, liquor appears on the market since 2017 company battalion closes add fast crop of banner liquor industry is added fast the advantage expands apparently.

           Above element will bring about consumption, medicine and regression of prices of sex of structure of science and technology.

           Of market offset cost, medicine be anxious: Appraise cost is high already, gain whether super- anticipate become a key.

           Above all, current estimate is worth included gain to anticipate not beyond the mark ground is high. In consumption and medical industry, the PB of food drink, home appliance, medicine and PE cent digit (nearly 10 years) all exceed 90% , however what concrete estimate value did not reflect like cent digit is so tall. If 3 industries PE or PB fall after a rise come nearly 10 years median, drop the space is only respectively 35.6% , 18.7% with 27.9% . Look from PB angle, structure of 3 large trades is optimized, ROE centre rises already. Look from PE angle, outstanding achievement of Q1 of industry of food, home appliance is affected by epidemic situation, influence of epidemic situation front had be notted reflect since medical industry Q2 (partial company Q1 also has negative effect) , PEttm is put in overmeasure. Be worth through appraise of second half of the year to 2021 after switch, appraise value will approach historical center. Accordingly, current estimate is worth included gain to anticipate not beyond the mark ground is high.

           Next, consumptive board piece climb the estimate that raise to be worth a level to have main area base ceaselessly in recent years: Advantage of bibcock industry competition promotes, gain ability promotes. From current in in light of expression of newspaper outstanding achievement, performance of medicine, spending is in lead position in entire market. Newspaper of medical industry half an year is added beforehand rate 57% , industrial business data shows total of medical industry profit grew 24.3% compared to the same period in May. Newspaper of half an year of food beverage industry is added beforehand rate 70% , total of food industry profit grew 11.6% compared to the same period in May. Newspaper of half an year of home appliance industry is added beforehand rate 57% , fast growth of originality small home appliance, q2 of hutch report, white report restores quickly.

           Current market is right of science and technology be anxious: Short-term pressure comes from the fluidity concussion of lift a ban; Metaphase comes from Sino-US wait for the problem effect to risk preference.

           Above all, the effect of lift a ban is unfavorable overmeasure. Look from historical data, since 2011 A market prise of monthly lift a ban occupies complete A scale of current market prise and index of Wind complete A rises that month drop correlation coefficient is 0.11, namely dimensions of lift a ban and go up that month without remarkable negative dependency. Current science and technology board piece lift a ban and decrease hold already had anticipate amply. Big fund has been announced for many times decrease oppose a plan, in July division achieve board lift a ban has been the market extensive acknowledge. Look from market environment, environment of current market liquidity is comfortable, trade the quantity is in the history higher level, can form certain amortize to lift a ban.

           Next, make " inside circularly " make Sino-US question right board of science and technology piece limit is affected from negative turn to the front. Board of science and technology piece abroad income is occupied taller, the United States was started 2018 right China commerce is afterwar board of science and technology piece drop significantly, abroad risk gets healing sending be reflectinged adequately in share price. Make " inside circularly " requirement our country is in implementation of side of crucial link, crucial domain, crucial product is more bigger new breakthrough, do away with a technology to develop bottleneck. Sino-US problem aggravate makes the pressing sex that supplies catenary safety promotes, to science and technology board piece form interest good factor.

           Look into future, science and technology of second half of the year board piece will still have apparent above quota accrual. We think prices of current science and technology will spread out around bibcock, of prices durative with extent will relatively 2013-2015 year taller, the reason is as follows: 1) risk of the necessity of economic transition, periphery, force policy tilts to science and technology, concentrated policy general and in those days cannot a day and language; 2) prices of current science and technology is to gain is propped up, especially bibcock company, the fast growth phase that the bonus of industry and policy drives just just may begin. Board of science and technology piece gain and semiconductor cycle dependency are stronger, semiconductor of epicycle whole world is periodic up overlay semiconductor is homebred change rate promotion to will bring cycle of gain of science and technology up. 3) 5G times is different from 4G times, speed faster, data the demand of bigger, hardware is higher, the industrial catenary that this brings enclothes face, gain to expand depth is Yuan Chao 4G. Board of science and technology piece license plate of gain and crop of our country mobile phone, wireless communication extends dependency is stronger, 5G changes machine tide and technical progress periodicly to will make intensity of cycle of gain of epicycle science and technology higher.

           3. Capital: The structural sex prices below play chess of the rich that put an amount

          Epicycle market rises in partner number did not increase significantly, reflect feature of play chess of the rich that put an amount. Our statistic appear on the market the partner number of frequency of company half moon changes. From choose angle looks, comprehensive ox city needs partner number to increase significantly on the history, show individual investor is big-time enter. Since July the addition of partner number still relatively gently, show investor is not big-time enter, future still hopeful shows pattern of play chess of the rich that put an amount, probability of comprehensive ox city is inferior. From configuration style angle looks, partner number also is the acting variable of orgnaization behavior, the company of partner number reductive of frequency of the half moon on the history, it is better that half month behaves future, show partner number is opposite situation sex of the look up before having. Communication of the half moon on July, before handing in number of partner of industry of carry, retail, steely, automobile to reduce scale to reside, did not reflect a striking style feature, the aggression direction with orgnaization consistent lack is to rise quickly one of elements with terminative prices.

           It is normal that financing buys regression completely level, increment capital puts delay significantly into city, the pattern of play chess of the rich that put an amount of capital of test and verify. First weeks of financing bought the forehead to amount to 134.6 billion yuan completely in July, break Zhou Jing bought a record 2015. Enter concussion period as the market however, day financing buys the specified amount completely already fall after a rise comes in May - in June the level of the date of departure on market concussion. Show increment capital puts delay significantly into city, financing area enters pattern of play chess of the rich that put an amount. Look on the structure, up to Zhou Si closing quotation, the industry before this week financing buys the forehead to reside completely is medicine, report drink of new, war industry, food, computer. Visible consumption, medicine, science and technology makes the configuration way that actor of capital of the lever below the bureau picks the Bo Yige that put an amount. Look from lever capital behavior, the structural sex prices of follow-up medicine, consumption, science and technology has the base of capital level.

           The capital on north by flow into more quickly completely turn to be poured out of completely, foreign capital puts delay into city, the pattern of play chess of the rich that put an amount of capital of same test and verify. From north the flow direction of capital looks, this capital on Zhou Bei pours out of 24.8 billion yuan completely, successive 2 weeks are poured out of completely and pour out of dimensions annulus completely than increasing. Look from the history, politic effect is better, indicate gender of the look up before the capital on north is had. Because the capital on this north flows into rhythm,put delay to also mean A the probability promotion that enters shake. From the configuration of the capital on north the structure looks, this capital on Zhou Bei pours out of more trade to be drink of blame silver, food, medicine, computer, consumer to serve. The capital on north of the monthly on the history is added hold the company future with higher proportion performance of a month is better, sex of the look up before behavior of the capital on indication north is had. The capital on north is decreased before matching amount of medicine, consumption, science and technology to reside, this is in with its these board piece configuration is absolutely scale is larger about. The capital on near future north is poured out of disturb with Sino-US problem about, see the capital on north for a long time flow into a trend changeless, once turn afresh,look from historical experience to be flowed into completely, the capital on north often increases the trade that the storehouse reduces before this, because this is right,behavior of the capital on north need not be anxious.

           Storehouse of fund of Q2 fair collect pick up, look from historical data, fund storehouse promote adumbrative metaphase general trends to good. Fund adds a storehouse medicine, science and technology, consumption, structural prices hopeful continues. BaseJin Cang respect, q2 common stock ticket, slant mix model, storehouse of fund of agile configuration fair collect promote respectively 0.2, 3 with 3.3 percent. Storehouse of quarter of fund of basis fair collect politic effect is better when metabolic choose, make clear fund storehouse promote adumbrative future general trends of a quarter to good probability bigger. Fund configures structural respect, q2 fund is added distribute medicine, report new, food, company is taken, before the dimensions of electronic industry is resided, medicine, consumption, science and technology basically configures direction for fund. Investor configures crowded existence to be anxious to fair collect fund, but dilate of dimensions of fair collect fund is faster on the history level, fund industry configuration goes to future situation have to before look up sex. Because this is in current below the circumstance that fair collect fund regards the market as main increment capital, fair collect adds a storehouse more reflects momentum effect and rather than to invert effect.

           4.  Recursive concussion, take a structure seriously

          General trends grinds sentence: 3200-3400 concussion. We think, current market will change concussion to level from the trend phase of early days. It is 3500 bits of obstruction on one hand bigger, and current still nonexistent from bottom to top helps each styles the foundation that force breaks through, it is market profitable effect is changed infirmly on the other hand, increment capital puts delay, we think to did not come for some time general trends is given priority to with concussion, interval will be in 3200-3400. Attention of follow-up need key is superintended, the element such as Sino-US, gain.

           The industry compares: Future rises quickly will turn for structural sex prices, integrated consideration industry is basic face and capital structure, industry style hopeful transfers to consumptive science and technology from financial cycle.

           Food drink: Performance of half annals hopeful is good, bibcock advantage is reflected further. 1) industry boom: Liquor suffer epidemic situation to pound bigger industry Q2 to restore quickly, the industry Q2 continuance of the epidemic situation of opposite benefit from benefit from such as masses food is dovish increase a current; 2) trade situation: Below epidemic situation concussion, the advantage that bibcock pay off table shows is more clear, ethical brand revives the trend is quickened; 3) attentionDressing: Domestic channel spending increases to glide to developing meal channel under epidemic situation, in see valence for a long time measure Qi Sheng to will drive an industry to last enlarge look, andDairy produce: Demand end anabiosises driving, current channel restores considerably, supply carries filling inventory to increase significantly.

           Home appliance: Optional consumption median gets the seeded player that expect, go up at present relatively inferior. 1) the inchoate phase that still is in consumption to anabiosis currently, by choose consumption surely defray is progressively to switch of optional spending expenses; 2) commodity house sale picks up gradually, half annals outstanding achievement is premonitory boom of indication home appliance anabiosises apparent, originality small home appliance grows quickly, white report / hutch report is remarkable repair, future first quarter or hopeful is improved continuously; 3) appraise worth level is low whole, gain capability is strong, breed of foreign capital preference.

           Car / new energy resources: Sales volume of car of new energy resources enters boom cycle, industrial catenary flourishs but period. 1) from current core data of sale of new energy firm looks, hopeful of sales volume of car of new energy resources inverts in the trend after epidemic situation; 2) traditional car sells data also hopeful moves toward repair after epidemic situation; 3) current car board piece anticipate inferior, downward safe mat is taller, the market will still be given priority to with core bibcock.

           Medicine: Fight epidemic disease relevant board piece Q3 boom still hopeful promotion, the circuit Q2 boom such as service of medicine of orthopaedics, CRO/CDMO, innovation, medical treatment anabiosises significantly. 1) fight epidemic disease board piece: Risk of epidemic situation of Q3 whole world still big, fight epidemic disease relevant product value is measured still hopeful annulus compares promotion; 2) circuit of long-term tall prosperity: Medicine of premonitory indication orthopaedics, CRO/CDMO, innovation, medical treatment serves half annals outstanding achievement wait for bearing of scene of long-term and high grade circuit to restore apparently, and bibcock company is behaved more actor, the long-term logic of industry bibcock still strong.

           Electron: Epidemic situation background enrages cycle to will be returned to, domestic industry catenary develops quickly. 1) the whole world is periodic: Global semiconductor is periodic 2019 already sole, the demand in 5G cycle will be returned to eventually; 2) Chinese trend: The electronic industry catenary such as domestic IC develops quickly, material + equipment + make comprehensive progress; 3) attentionSemiconductor: Endowment brilliant circle produces a line inside rapid spread is produced, hopeful of bearing of industrial catenary scene maintains several years, andConsume an electron: Wireless earphone sales volume grows quickly, flat computer and pen electricity demand are moderate grow, the mobile phone expects to change machine tide.

           The computer: Can accuse core period independently, and data flow processing greets fast growth phase. In the future looks, network safety and policy of trade of medical treatment informatization are ceaseless be born, expect relative stability, phase of prices fast growth is forthcoming.

        5.  5 dimension occupy panoramic graph

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